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Beyond the Headlines: A Deep Look at Public Opinion in North Macedonia

The recent release of Lifepanel’s Q1 quarterly tracker revealed surprising variations in public opinion.. While the headline results provided a broad understanding of current sentiments, there’s often a deeper story waiting to be revealed when we examine the data through a demographic lens. This blog post is your guide to exploring the details beyond the headline statistics.

By segmenting the data by age groups, employment status, and education levels, we can uncover intriguing variations in perspectives. Will we see significant differences in views between younger generations and their elders? Does income level influence how people perceive current events or social issues? Analyzing the survey findings through this demographic lens promises to reveal a nuanced tapestry of public opinion, potentially highlighting generational divides, geographic disparities, and the influence of socioeconomic factors.

Our first question dives into a topic at the forefront of North Macedonia’s future: potential membership in the European Union. But public opinion isn’t monolithic. To understand the nuances, we’ll be dissecting responses by age group and education level. Analyzing these demographic variations will provide a richer picture of public sentiment towards this critical issue.

All things considered, do you think your country would benefit from being a member of the EU? Age groups comparison.

The Lifepanel survey reveals a remarkable level of agreement across all age groups regarding North Macedonia’s potential future within the European Union. Notably, the oldest demographic (above 65 years old) demonstrates the strongest support, with a resounding 74.4% believing EU membership would benefit the country. The youngest age group (under 30 years old) also exhibits a high level of approval, with 67.8% in favor. While other age brackets show slightly lower percentages, a clear majority across the board sees EU integration as a positive step towards a brighter future for North Macedonia. This widespread support, spanning generations, paints a fascinating picture of national unity on this critical issue.

All things considered, do you think your country would benefit from being a member of the EU? Education level comparison.

Similar to the age group analysis, education level also appears to have minimal impact on public opinion regarding North Macedonia’s potential EU membership. Analyzing the Lifepanel survey results, we see a majority across all educational backgrounds – from those with no formal education to those holding university degrees – agree that North Macedonia’s future is best served through membership in the European Union. This consistency across educational attainment suggests a deeply rooted national sentiment and a broadly shared vision for the country’s path forward. While further analysis may reveal subtle variations in reasoning or priorities based on education, the overall message is clear: a significant portion of North Macedonians, regardless of their educational background, view EU membership as a positive step towards a brighter future.

The Lifepanel survey explores public opinion on North Macedonia’s ideal international partnerships. Interestingly, a pattern emerges when analyzing responses by age group regarding the country they believe North Macedonia should have the closest relationship with.

Which country or organization should your country have the closest relationship with? Age groups comparison.

The EU is the clear favourite with strongest support across all age demographics. Notably, the youngest group (under 30) demonstrates the most enthusiasm, with 46.5% advocating for closer EU ties. This sentiment echoes through older generations, culminating in an impressive 73.1% of those above 65 years old favoring the EU. While support wanes slightly within middle-aged groups (30-49 and 50-64), a clear majority across all ages sees the EU as the preferred partner. Russia, however, emerges as a secondary choice, particularly among younger demographics. This suggests a potential generational divide regarding alternative alliances, with 17% of under-30s favoring Russia compared to a lower percentage in older groups. Further analysis is needed to understand the reasoning behind these preferences, but these initial findings highlight the complex considerations shaping North Macedonia’s international relations.

The trend of the EU being the preferred partner holds true when we examine educational background. Similar to the age comparison, a majority across all education levels favor closer ties with the European Union.

Which country or organization should your country have the closest relationship with? Education level comparison.

However, this analysis unveils some interesting nuances. Notably, individuals with Ph.D. degrees exhibit a distinct preference for the United States, with a significant portion (24.6%) advocating for a closer relationship. This stands in contrast to other education groups. Additionally, those with a secondary education show a slightly higher interest in Russia (26.2%) compared to other demographics. While the EU remains the frontrunner across education levels, these variations hint at potential underlying factors shaping foreign policy preferences based on educational attainment. Further investigation into the reasoning behind these choices could provide valuable insights.

The Lifepanel survey delves into a critical issue: public perception of corruption in North Macedonia. The results, however, are concerning. When asked about the sectors most affected by corruption, respondents across age groups and education levels identified three key areas: the political system, the judiciary, and the government.

In your opinion, which public service is most affected by corruption? Education level comparison.

From this chart we can see that education level appears to influence perceptions of corruption. While 36.2% of respondents with Ph.D. degrees believe the judiciary is the most corrupt sector, only 3.6% of those with primary education share that view. Instead, those with primary education overwhelmingly focus on the government (21.4%) and the political system (21.6%) as the areas most infiltrated by corruption. Interestingly, law enforcement is a concern for a smaller segment (14.3%) of this demographic.

This trend partially continues with those holding secondary education. Similar to higher education groups, they perceive government, the political system, and the judiciary as the top three most corrupt sectors. University graduates, however, seem to mirror the concerns of those with Ph.D. degrees, with the majority viewing these same three institutions as most susceptible to corruption.

These findings suggest a possible correlation between educational background and the specific areas where corruption is perceived to be most rampant. Individuals with higher education might have a more nuanced understanding of government institutions, leading them to focus on the judiciary. Conversely, those with less formal education might prioritize more visible aspects of governance, such as the government itself or the political system.

On the next chart we analyze how different age groups in North Macedonia perceive the coruption in their country. The results paint a concerning picture. When asked about the sectors most affected by corruption, respondents across all age groups identified the same three key areas: the political system, the judiciary, and the government. At least 15% of respondents in each age bracket perceive these institutions as being riddled with corruption.

In your opinion, which public service is most affected by corruption? Age groups comparison.

Interestingly, age appears to influence the specific area of concern. Notably, a significant portion 38.2% of respondents in the 65+ age group identified the judiciary as the most corrupt public service. While corruption is a worry across sectors, 8.1% of respondents under 30 specifically identified the education system as the most corrupt. Given that this age group is directly impacted by the education system, this finding merits a closer look at potential corruption within educational institutions in North Macedonia. The Lifepanel survey reveals that not only do 8.1% of respondents under 30 view the education system as the most corrupt sector, but a significant 11.5% from this same age group also perceive law enforcement to be the most susceptible to corruption. This finding suggests a potential link between age and the specific areas where corruption is perceived to be most problematic.

However, the overall message remains clear: public trust in key institutions appears to be eroded by concerns about corruption across generations. Addressing these concerns will be crucial in strengthening North Macedonia’s democracy and ensuring public confidence in its governance.

The Lifepanel survey concludes with a particularly concerning question: emigration. When asked if they’ve considered moving out of North Macedonia in the past year, a significant portion of respondents across all age groups expressed a desire to leave.

In the last 12 months, have you considered moving from your country, temporarily or permanently? Age groups comparison.

The statistics are stark: a staggering 81.2% of young people under 30 are contemplating emigration, followed closely by 75.6% of those aged 30-49. Even among the 50+ age group, which includes retirees, a substantial 45% have entertained the idea of leaving.

The Lifepanel survey also investigated the link between emigration and employment status. Interestingly, the results suggest that employment status itself may not be the driving factor behind the desire to leave. Regardless of whether they are students (76.5%), part-time employees (85.9%), full-time employees (70.9%), or self-employed (68.2%), a significant majority across all employment categories expressed a willingness to emigrate.

In the last 12 months, have you considered moving from your country, temporarily or permanently? Employment status comparison.

This trend suggests that factors beyond employment opportunities are likely influencing emigration decisions. The high percentages across the board point towards deeper issues that may be driving people to seek opportunities elsewhere. As mentioned previously, concerns about corruption, healthcare quality, and education quality could be playing a significant role.

These figures paint a worrying picture of a nation where a significant portion of the population feels compelled to seek opportunities elsewhere. While the reasons behind these considerations require further investigation, the survey results undeniably call for action. Understanding the factors driving emigration is crucial for developing policies that encourage people, particularly younger generations, to stay and contribute to North Macedonia’s future.

The Lifepanel quarterly survey in North Macedonia reveals both surprising unity and interesting variations across demographics. While a strong national consensus exists regarding potential EU membership, a closer look unveils intriguing nuances. Education level seems to have minimal impact on EU support, suggesting a broadly shared vision for the country’s future. However, regarding preferred international partnerships, educational background does play a role, with Ph.D. holders leaning towards the United States.

The most concerning finding is the widespread perception of corruption across all age groups and education levels. While the political system, judiciary, and government are seen as most corrupt, variations emerge. Younger generations express particular concern about the education system and law enforcement, while those over 65 focus more on the judiciary.

The most alarming statistic is the high percentage of people considering emigration, especially among younger demographics. This highlights a crucial issue – a significant portion of the population feels compelled to seek opportunities elsewhere. Understanding the reasons behind these concerns, likely including corruption, healthcare quality, and education quality, is vital for developing policies that address these issues and encourage people to stay and contribute to North Macedonia’s future.

The survey was conducted from January to March on 1429 respondents over 16 years old and was based on a nationally representative sample of North Macedonian adults, with 95% confidence a given range contains the true result at a population level and an error margin of 2.5%. The results are weighted, base weights are calibrated for age, gender, educational attainment level and place of residence and adjusted for non-response.

Stole Smilkov
Stole Smilkov
Stole Smilkov is the Business Development Manager of Sample Solutions BV, and leading the further growth of Lifepanel from a research but also commercial perspective.